Cotton exports in 2017 is afraid of "four countries to kill": India is winning!

According to the USDA December supply and demand report, India's 2016/17 cotton production is estimated at 27 million bales (November estimate was 27 million bales), an increase of 600,000 bales from 2015/16; the September forecast of the Cotton Advisory Council of India (CAI) shows that India's cotton production in 2016/17 is 5.712 million tons; recently some international cotton traders and Indian ginners believe that Indian cotton production in 2016/17 may exceed 5.9 million tons.

　　From the survey, the impact of India's new monetary policy on seed cotton acquisition, finishing and sales "continuous", the continuation of the strong U.S. dollar index triggered greater fluctuations in the exchange rate of the rupee and India's export of fabric products to the European and American markets workwear downturn (intensified debt crisis in the euro zone), 2016/17 Indian cotton regardless of domestic cotton consumption or contracted exports are more than the previous two years, "not optimistic".

　　With the delay in the listing of Indian cotton, the first half of 2017 U.S. cotton, Indian cotton, Australian cotton and Uzbekistan cotton "four countries to kill" the phenomenon will become more intense. And Indian cotton in the cost, monetary policy influence gradually diluted, the advantages of Indian cotton prices will be all-round, "run the second half" will also be the goal of Indian ginners and exporters.

First, the price advantage can not be replaced, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Indonesia, China and other buyers focus on the focus once again turned to Indian cotton.

　　Since December, with the Indian seed cotton, lint, export pressure gradually listed, India's domestic cotton prices oscillate down, bottoming out, S-6 gin factory price fell to 71-72 cents / pound, Indian cotton yarn, the competitiveness of this color cotton fabric continues to grow. At present, the January/February shipments of S-61-5/32", S-61-1/8" and MCU5 (30mm) of the Far East main port CIF offer 77 cents / pound, 76.6 cents / pound and 77.80 cents / pound, lower than the same period EMOTGC grade cotton 7-8 cents / pound; January/February shipments S-6 offer is also lower than 1-1/8" West African cotton (Mali, Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, etc.) 4.5-5.5 cents / lb; with the lifting of Pakistan's "ban" on imports of Indian cotton, the enthusiasm of the Pakistani fabric factory procurement, the default against U.S. cotton rose.

　　Second, the U.S. cotton contracted exports "a show", leaving China, Pakistan, Vietnam and Bangladesh and other yarn mills and operators of space has been relatively limited.

　　According to USDA statistics, as of December 8, 2016/17 U.S. cotton contracted exports of 1.81 million tons, an increase of 692,000 tons, an increase of 62%, 67% of USDA export projections, significantly higher than the same period last year, 55%, that is, the first half of 2017 directly from the ginners, exporters contracted high-grade high-quality U.S. cotton expectations greatly reduced (mainly in the late flower ), the main body of cotton resources have shifted to foreign investors, large cotton traders, "second-hand or even three-hand" sources of goods to occupy the consumer market. And 2017 Australian cotton early shipping period in April / May, 1-4 months for the inclusion of China and other Southeast Asian countries, in addition to Indian cotton other sources of "first-hand" sources is a "break".

　　Third, India and Pakistan and other sources of low-count cotton yarn hot sales gave Indian cotton strong consumer support.

　　For China, Korea, Japan, Europe and the United States and other countries, cloth mills, workwear factories and traders companies need both 50S and above, combed yarn "white snow", but also need C32S and the following counts (including OE yarn), "the next man". From the perspective of yarn mills, C40S and below spinning yarn demand and consumption is still the mainstream of the market, while India, Pakistan, Vietnam, Indonesia and other yarn mills are in a state of "rapid progress, running", the dependence on medium and low quality but good quality and low price of Indian cotton continues to be at a high level.

China Customs statistics, in October 2016, China's imports of Indian cotton yarn increased significantly, very Qingdao port, it is estimated that imports in November will also be enhanced; and the impact of the TPP agreement abrogation, Vietnam no longer enjoys tariff-free access to the U.S. market, but also do not have to comply with the TPP rules of origin, therefore, Vietnam's cotton and cotton yarn imports to India increased. According to the calculation of some cotton yarn traders, as of late December before, the inventory of imported cotton yarn in China's main ports has exceeded 90,000 tons.

　　Fourth, the depreciation of the Indian rupee against the U.S. dollar has increased, which is conducive to the export of cotton and cotton yarn.

　　Some investment institutions and futures companies believe that in the dollar index in January 1986, reached a high of 125; to reach a second high (120) in 2001, between these two highs is a cycle. This cycle is 15 years long. Therefore, the dollar exchange rate is now running to 102, 103, from the bottom up, so the dollar index in 2017 is expected to touch 120, in the premise of significantly suppressing the exports of U.S. cotton, Australian cotton, etc., greatly promote the export of Indian cotton.