Policy support for the futures market to help
Rising production costs, cotton income decline in the mainland cotton planting area continued to decline, while the lack of raw materials coupled with the lack of support policies make the survival of the mainland cotton downstream enterprises difficult, industrial transfer has become the first choice. As the target price policy implementation effect is obvious, Xinjiang cotton yields, total production joint increase, and industrial preferential policies have been introduced in succession to attract many mainland cotton downstream industry enterprises into Xinjiang. In addition, the cotton futures transit delivery depot, counting points in Xinjiang set up a station, the futures market to serve the progress of the cotton industry in Xinjiang is in depth. The future of Xinjiang will become the center of China's cotton industry, the new cotton industry pattern is under construction.
The mainland cotton industry sunset
Near the end of the year, driving through the land in Jingchu, Qilu, as far as the eye can see, either green wheat fields, or pale yellow rice fields, in previous years, common hanging a few cotton ling in the cold wind swaying large cotton trees hard to find. Heze City, Shandong Province, the same line of grain eating trade merchants Wang Zhong Shi informed Futures Daily reporter, the mainland's cotton planting area is becoming less and less, a large area of cotton fields have been bad to find, while many downstream cotton-related enterprises are either shut down or out of production, the mainland's entire cotton industry is shrinking.
"Mainland land resources are limited, with the urbanization process, the Mainland can be used to plant cotton arable land decline year by year. And this at the same time, the mainland agricultural water and other natural resources are increasingly scarce, such as Hebei Province is now almost all agricultural water by pumping groundwater to meet. More importantly, the current shortage of labor resources in the mainland market, the labor cost of growing cotton is growing rapidly." Hengshui City, Hebei Province, cotton finishing merchants Zhao Zide informed reporters that the planting of cotton in the mainland, one is the lack of resources, the second is a large input, low returns. The probability of the future mainland cotton planting area to maintain a steady rise is very low. In the case of insufficient raw materials, the mainland cotton downstream industry to live only to move out or transition.
In previous years, winter, driving through the main cotton-producing areas in the interior of Hubei, Hebei, Shandong, Henan, you can often see the reddish-brown cotton trees spread all over the land, the production areas of farmers' yards filled with cotton firewood and cotton shells, now these scenes can rarely be seen.
According to Zhao Zide, now the mainland farmers grow cotton is not very cost-effective. Although the purchase price of seed cotton in the mainland this year is higher, planting cotton revenue has increased, but the input has also increased a lot. The breakdown, planting cotton is not as good as planting crops such as wheat, rape or vegetables.
Reporters in the mainland cotton production area interviews found that the mainland cotton planting area and production to maintain a stable area of increasing difficulty. Because of the small amount of land and people, the mainland farmers planting cotton presents small-scale, point-like characteristics, simply can not implement cotton planting, drugging, fat, watering, picking mechanized operations, cotton production in the mainland is still mainly manual labor, time-consuming, labor-intensive, labor-intensive, which makes it difficult for cotton production and high subsidies, high mechanization of grain eating production, farmers in the mainland production areas to a large number of cotton fields into wheat fields, Rape fields, spring corn (1502,-9.00,-0.60%) fields, etc. inevitably.
Luzhang futures cotton researcher Zhou Dalong informed reporters that the actual planting area and production analysis of cotton from the mainland production areas this year, the mainland cotton area and total production decline is very obvious.
On December 20, the National Bureau of Statistics released national cotton production data show that this year's national cotton production was 5.343 million tons, a decrease of 260,000 tons or 4.6% from 2015. Overall, the reduction in planting area is the main reason for the decrease in cotton production in China this year. Following the decrease in cotton planting area in 2014 and 2015, it continued to decrease this year. This year, the national cotton planting area of 50.642 million mu, 6.308 million mu less than in 2015, down 11.1%. By region, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is 1.488 million mu less than in 2015, down 5.2%; the cotton planting area in other provinces decreased by 482.0 million mu, down 17%.
It is worth market attention that, by cotton region, the main cotton areas in the Yellow River and Yangtze River basins have been on a trend of more reduction in production in 2015. Among them, the Yellow River basin cotton area decreased by 2.217 million mu, down 14.3%. Although the yield of this production area increased by 63.3 kilograms per hectare, an increase of 6.0%, the total output decreased by 10.0 million tons, down 9.2%, dragged by the more decreasing area. The cotton area in the Yangtze River Basin decreased by 2.411 million mu, down 19.8%, while the yield per hectare decreased by 68.3 kilograms, down 5.9%, ultimately leading to a decrease of 230,000 tons of total cotton production in this production area, down 24.6%.
"Mainland cotton acreage and production continued to decline sharply so that the survival of downstream industrial enterprises is very difficult, resulting in the increasing business risks of cotton-related enterprises, which is mainly due to excessive fluctuations in raw material prices." Zhou Dalong said, in the first half of this year, the domestic cotton prices rose sharply in the process, many industrial enterprises have losses, one of the important reasons is that these enterprises grasp the cotton resources in the hands of too few. Due to the supply of few resources, prices change quickly, many downstream enterprises do not dare to hoard a lot of cotton. And when cotton prices continue to rise, these downstream enterprises have lost the market initiative, booked raw material procurement contracts are often in default.
According to the reporter, plagued by a shortage of cotton resources and labor costs increase, the downstream industry in the mainland producing areas of cotton is slow, many large and medium-sized cotton-related enterprises began to move out, one is to enter Xinjiang to start a new factory, the second is to enter Southeast Asia and other places to set up a station branch factory.
"Considering the cost of production of electricity, labor, taxes, many fabric companies are very large and medium-sized enterprises are moving their production capacity abroad, such as the leading color spinning enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have built factories in the United States, Vietnam and other places. Compared with domestic, the cost of its production abroad is lower, these enterprises built abroad will certainly not purchase domestic cotton as raw materials, and part of its production will be shipped back to domestic sales." Zhou Dalong said, from the current layout of the domestic fabric industry, the fabric industry to the Xinjiang region, the trend of migration outside the more obvious, such as the construction of factories in Xinjiang, the local government to the enterprise's various subsidies together, equivalent to about 3,000 yuan per ton of cotton yarn production costs adjusted down. For the mainland fabric enterprises, this is very attractive.
The rising sun of Xinjiang cotton industry
Compared with the sunset of the mainland cotton industry, Xinjiang cotton industry is like the rising sun to complete the mane four. After years of subsidies to cotton farmers, cotton-related enterprises for preferential policies to support, coupled with the futures market related institutions to help, Xinjiang is becoming the center of China's cotton industry, the new cotton industry pattern is being formed.
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on December 20 show that the completion of this year, China's large cotton-producing region of Xinjiang cotton planting area decreased, but due to an increase of 151.5 kg per hectare of yield, cotton production reached 3.594 million tons, an increase of 91,000 tons over 2015, an increase of 2.6%. Due to the increase in production, the share of cotton production in Xinjiang in the country further expanded to 67.3%, 4.8 percentage points higher than in 2015.
Du Ying, director of the cotton research center of Huaxin Wanda Futures, informed reporters that before 2010/2011, Xinjiang's cotton production accounted for 33.48% of the country's share. Since 2011/2012, the relevant agencies in the cotton region of Xinjiang for three consecutive years to implement the cotton storage policy, which has increased the enthusiasm of farmers in Xinjiang to grow cotton, Xinjiang cotton production accounted for 57.8% of the country's share. In recent years, due to the implementation of direct subsidy policy in the Xinjiang cotton region has been effective, the proportion of cotton production in Xinjiang to the country continued to climb, reaching about 67% in 2016/2017.
Interview reporter learned that the reason for the steady rise in cotton production in Xinjiang, in addition to the factors of policy support, planting technology and yield improvement is also an important reason.
From the policy side, the effect of the implementation of the target price policy for cotton in the Xinjiang region is obvious, the price formation mechanism based on market supply and demand has begun to bear fruit, and farmers who grow cotton have gradually accepted the new subsidy approach. The relevant agencies according to the target price and the market price of the price difference for cotton farmers to carry out direct subsidies, not only to ensure that farmers' income is not reduced, but also to ensure the stability of the cotton planting area in Xinjiang.
In recent years, the cotton planting area in the mainland has declined significantly, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is almost unchanged. This year, the reason for the reduction of cotton planting area in Xinjiang, or due to the initiative of cotton farmers to reduce the land unsuitable for growing cotton caused by.
From Xinjiang cotton planting varieties, technology and yields, etc. to analyze, the past many varieties of cotton in Xinjiang, planting technology backward, low yields have been largely improved, cotton planting process of field management and other increasingly scientific.
The reporter found in Xinjiang field trip, in order to reduce input costs and improve yields, many cotton areas in Xinjiang to increase the cultivation of cotton varieties, selective promotion and planting of cotton varieties not only good plant neatness, high yields, and the ability to resist natural disasters. And this at the same time, in order to expand the area of machine picking and reduce labor costs, many cotton farmers are happy to listen to the guidance of cotton experts, planting cotton with what thickness of film, how to drip irrigation, how to apply fat and spray defoliant, etc. are scientific and standard operating procedures.
Du Ying said, now Xinjiang is increasing the progress of the cotton industry, Xinjiang agencies proposed "three cities and seven parks a center" fabric industry progress plan is being implemented, the future of Xinjiang in the cotton industry will be built in Aksu, Shihezi, Korla three fabric industry city, Kashgar, Hutubi, Shaya, Batu, Kuitun, Korla In Xinjiang, the cotton industry will be built in Aksu, Shihezi, Kulle three fabric industrial city, Kashgar, Hutubi, Shaya, Batu, Kuitun, Kullu, Bole seven fabric industrial park, and a Urumqi international fabric products workwear trade center.
"From the analysis of the progress of the cotton industry in Xinjiang, since 2014, the cotton yarn industry in Xinjiang has progressed rapidly under the policy support, and the domestic large fabric enterprises such as Huafu, Huafang, Huamao, Ruyi, Tianhong, etc. have set up factories in Xinjiang." Du Ying said, so far this year, fabric enterprises in Xinjiang put into production about 12 million spindles, can consume 800,000 to 1 million tons of cotton.
It is also understood that the scale of fabrics in Xinjiang will soon reach 20 million spindles, with an annual consumption of about 2 million tons of cotton, which means that there will be about 50% of the cotton in Xinjiang digested locally.
Du Ying said, it is estimated that with the successive commissioning of many factories next year, cotton consumption in Xinjiang will grow rapidly, which will make the industrial structure of Xinjiang cotton from production-oriented gradually to the production and marketing of one change, the future of Xinjiang will become China's large cotton textile weaving production and other centers.
Hangzhou Jinjiang Group futures manager Jiang Yilei informed Futures Daily reporter, the mainland fabric enterprises into Xinjiang has become a major trend, cotton traders, etc. also pay more and more attention to the Xinjiang cotton market. Due to the high quality of cotton in Xinjiang, the number of large, the future of China's cotton market pricing center is certainly in Xinjiang.
"This year, the northern border area cotton picking almost machine picking full coverage, cotton harvesting time is short, high quality consistency completely changed the circulation pattern of the cotton market, such as the acquisition of cotton in Xinjiang, finishing, selling, etc. have undergone major changes." Shanghai Paisen Fabric Products Co., Ltd. deputy general manager Shan Hua said.
According to Du Ying, the current Xinjiang relevant institutions for the progress of the fabric workwear industry has introduced a lot of preferential policies, the future of the cotton industry chain in the Xinjiang region will be more and more elongated. For example, the relevant institutions in Xinjiang will be fabric workwear enterprise loan interest, out of the border freight subsidies and other subsidies to shorten the cycle from a year to a quarter; set up a station size of about 10 billion yuan of fabric workwear industry guidance fund, the domestic well-known fabric workwear enterprises in Xinjiang investment enterprises to carry out equity investment, reduce financing costs; by the government-owned state-owned assets investment company in key fabric workwear industrial park and the four southern Xinjiang Prefecture Population concentration of the township construction of standard plant, 3 years rent-free to the mainland to invest in the use of enterprises in Xinjiang; set up stations fabric workwear industry international market expansion special funds, workwear, home textiles and other export-oriented enterprises set up factories in Xinjiang to give special support to support production-oriented enterprises to develop the westward market in Central and West Asia, Russia and Europe, etc..
As a result of policy support, etc. for the progress of the cotton industry in Xinjiang to create a better market environment and industrial ecology, coupled with Xinjiang is located in the geographical center of the Asian and European continents, is the bridgehead of opening to the west and the Silk Road Economic Belt on the core area, the future of Xinjiang will not only be China's main cotton production area, but also will become an important cotton textile weaving production base.
Futures market to help speed up the progress of cotton in Xinjiang
The reporter found in the market research, in the domestic cotton industry to Xinjiang in the process of transfer, the industry chain of enterprises using futures and other financial tools progress momentum is also relatively rapid. For example, many large cotton growers in the cotton region of Xinjiang before planting, before the sale of seed cotton are to refer to the domestic cotton futures prices to make a plan, to avoid the blind expansion, seed cotton selling price is low and other phenomena. For some large fabric enterprises, increase cotton and product inventory is facing the risk of falling prices, while maintaining a low inventory of cotton and products and face the risk of rising prices and future procurement of raw materials may not be, at this time these enterprises as long as a little basis difference trading or over-the-counter options trading operations may be a better solution to the problem.
Du Ying informed reporters that, from the current lint pricing model in Xinjiang, futures pricing has gradually matured. However, from the cotton-related business side, there are still many problems to be solved. As cotton is seasonal production and annual sales, many ginners face inventory risk. And at the same time, cotton as a high economic value of commodities, the circulation process takes up a larger amount of capital, cotton-related enterprises in the operation often encounter the problem of capital shortage.
Another reporter understands that in the global cotton market integration is higher, China's cotton industry chain of enterprises facing increasingly fierce market competition, in the case of increased cotton price volatility, the healthy progress of the cotton industry in Xinjiang not only need to strengthen policy support, strengthen product innovation, governance innovation, but also need to strengthen market risk governance.
In recent years, in order to assist cotton-related enterprises in the Xinjiang region to solve the business risks, capital constraints, the lack of futures talent and other issues, Zheng and other relevant futures institutions focused on futures business training in Xinjiang, to carry out a number of futures market services industry innovation business, which is conducive to the steady progress of the cotton industry in Xinjiang.
At present, the Zheng Institute has innovatively set up a station in the Xinjiang region cotton delivery transit warehouse, cotton Xinjiang production, Xinjiang inspection, Xinjiang registered, cotton transit warehouse receipts delivery unit, inspection methods, inspection agencies, delivery standards, period to cash mode, independent pairing delivery methods, warehouse receipts against margin, bank pledge and other functions are the same as the standard warehouse receipts. If the transit warehouse receipts are to be converted into standard warehouse receipts, only the problem of transportation from Xinjiang to the mainland remains, and the transportation time is solved by the warehouse receipt holder and the delivery transit library according to the railroad transportation tightness.
In addition, in order to assist farmers in poor areas of Xinjiang to complete early out of poverty, to reduce the risk of farmers growing cotton, the Zheng Institute and a number of futures institutions and other areas in Xinjiang also launched the "insurance + futures" business. In early November this year, Xinjiang's first "insurance + futures" innovation pilot signed
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