Since late November, the Zheng cotton CF1705 contract 15600-16500 yuan / ton compartment wide oscillation (center of gravity continues to move down); inside and outside the border cotton textile weaving mills, traders, although less than expected to replenish the warehouse but support the cotton spot price remains high; coupled with the October-December Xinjiang cotton out of the border transport "not give "and real estate cotton into a "supporting role" and so on the reality of factors to support, some of the cotton finishing enterprises in Xinjiang, businessmen into whether it is to store cotton to rise or fall into the bag for the boredom. Compared to September 2015 - April 2016 domestic Zheng cotton, cotton spot market all the way down in a straight line, this year, ginners, cotton-related enterprises have had a much better time.
According to my investigation, as of early December, the direct cost of lint cotton 3128 grade cotton enterprises in Xinjiang about 15,000-15,300 yuan / ton (including machine picked cotton, Kashgar and Aksu cotton area individual gin may be lower than 15,000 yuan / ton), if the financial cost of 350-400 yuan / ton (calculated on a three-month basis, the monthly interest rate of commercial loans about 8%), lint cotton in the warehouse comprehensive cost of about 15,400- 15700 yuan / ton, according to the current station within the border cotton gross weight transaction price of 15600-16000 yuan / ton to measure, cotton enterprises although there is not much profit but also not to inverse loss. This is exactly the cotton finishing enterprises, cotton merchants in the cotton is sold or stay between indecisive, stumbling reason.
The author's view is that "more sales less storage", complete the first half of 2017 may reduce the risk of business, including "double 29", "double 30" hand-picked and machine-picked cotton can consider holding off Out of the hand, but 3128, 2128 and lower grade lint or bag for safety, can be considered from the following perspectives.
One, the 2017 cotton spot can rise how much? From the sales time up speculation, 2017 mid-January Spring Festival to mid-February before the domestic cotton demand and consumption basically stagnant, March 6 began to start the State Reserve cotton rotation, so if the mid-January before not concentrating on shipping out, sales of Xinjiang cotton, can only wait until March and April to have the opportunity to calculate on 5 months of finance charges, by then, "double 28 " level in Xinjiang selling price of 16,300-16,600 yuan / ton before the price and the current flat.
Second, the price of foreign cotton on domestic cotton pressure. The current April-June 2017 shipments of Australian cotton 1% tariff clearance under the cost of about 14,800-15,000 yuan / ton, compared to the price of Xinjiang cotton is very competitive; other, it is estimated that as of the end of December 2016, the 2016 cotton import quota will have more than 200,000 tons delayed until the end of February 2017 to use, plus the 2017 1% tariff within the quota of 894,000 tons. relatively sufficient quotas at least until July 2017.
Third, the reserve cotton is not unusable. From the May-September 2016 rotation deal and fabric factory feedback, the quality of reserve cotton, spinnability is still very strong, some spinning 40S and above count cotton yarn of large factories also actively bid, take the goods, did not have a significant impact on the product contract delivery, receiving orders, some large factories even retain the cotton import quota, only the purchase of reserve cotton, Xinjiang cotton with cotton textile yarn. Consider the amount of reserve cotton rotation in 2017 is sufficient to complete the tube to meet the demand for combed yarn, high cotton, high count yarn can not be determined, but the supply of replenishment role is outstanding;.
Fourth, the funds of cotton finishing enterprises are still under pressure. A large part of the gin in Xinjiang is the use of agricultural issuance, credit unions and other commercial bank loans, must be returned by month, proportional to the loan, after the end of August 2017 to achieve "double zero", the financial pressure can be described as a shadow, whether the cotton can be stored is debatable. Other, as opposed to own, financing, joint venture acquisition of cotton enterprises, accounting for nearly 10 months of pressure on the acquisition of funds is not easy;.
Its fifth, cotton yarn, native cotton fabric and other downstream products increased pressure. At present, the difference between the port of India and Pakistan yarn and domestic yarn has reached 800-1200 yuan / ton, the influx of imported yarn into the domestic market "momentum", the production of C32S and the following low-count yarn of small and medium-sized cotton textile mills have taken to reduce production, stop production in response; Indian cotton listing delayed, export extension and domestic monetary policy hidden problems removed. Indian cotton acquisition, finishing and export on track, the competitiveness of Indian yarn "only stronger than weak"; coupled with the RMB exchange rate fluctuations, the export situation is becoming more and more complex, cotton yarn, cotton fabric by what to echo the rise in cotton prices?
Contact: Jeanne yang（MISS）
E-mail: [email protected]
Add: Room A2216/A2217,Double-Star Building,No 567 New South Middle Road, KunShan City JiangSu Province ,China.