How will textile raw materials be interpreted next year?

2016 is a more difficult year for the fabric industry, due to the adjustment of the cotton reserve policy, resulting in cotton prices all the way high, prices continue to go high, although the middle of the price decline, but the overall or continue to strengthen, the continuation of high cotton prices led to the price of other fabric raw materials, viscose, polyester, nylon and other fabric raw materials also continue to go high, coupled with the G20 summit and strong environmental protection measures The advent of the G20 Summit and strong environmental protection measures, but also makes the chemical fiber raw material prices remain high.

From the point of view of the entire fabric industry, December entered the off-season demand, the market will rise first and then fall, the fabric index is estimated at 870 points high and 840 points low. According to monitoring, the chemical fiber sector overall rise in November. PTA spot quoted at the end of November 4959 yuan / ton, up 3.38% per month, PTA futures were once as high as 5360 yuan / ton; domestic glycol market since October prices rose by more than 18%. Polyester filament supported by upstream PTA, ethylene glycol price surge, prices continued to rise, hitting new annual highs. 16 years will soon be over, for the 17-year fabric market, cotton, viscose market and how to interpret?

　　Cotton supply and demand "tight balance"

　　Cotton prices rose steadily in November, once breaking through the high of 16,021 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic cotton market has finally stabilized. As of 19, Xinjiang area spot platform pickup price "double 29", "double 30" price in 16,000-16,200 yuan / ton, the actual local transaction price can be negotiated. Machine picked cotton within the border station pickup price "double 28" in 15,500-15,600 yuan / ton. Especially recently, Xinjiang cotton out of the border subsidies, to bring good news to the cotton out of the border. As of the 19th, the Yellow River Basin, Yangtze River Basin cotton 3128 large bales of cotton in 15,700-15,800 yuan / ton, small bales of cotton prices 14,500-15,300 yuan / ton, the market fluctuates slightly, the overall stability.

　　From the survey, the current mentality of the cotton enterprises in Xinjiang is more divergent, some ginners to tighten sales, for the end of February 2017 to achieve "double-zero"; some ginners are covering tight "double 28", "double 2 ", "double 30" cotton resources (including machine-picked cotton), short-term to the mainland transfer, offer to sell the enthusiasm is not high, waiting for March 2017 after the domestic cotton prices "not to sound, a flight to the sky" opportunity to come. For the 2016/17 cotton prices, some institutions, cotton companies believe that the probability of breaking 17,000 yuan / ton, 18,000 yuan / ton is relatively large, before the Spring Festival is the cotton price consolidation bottoming stage, the market will be launched with the March 6, 2017 reserve cotton rotation and upward, cotton, polyester staple fiber and other raw materials will promote the entire fabric, workwear industry chain forward.

　　From the relevant government departments, research institutions and corporate feedback, 2016/17 domestic cotton supply and demand "tight balance" is a consensus, but "tight" to what extent? How should the balance of China's cotton account? For supply, a relatively simple estimate.

　　1, production: we have the bottom of the heart, this is because with the cotton acquisition, finishing, public inspection progress, 2016 domestic cotton production estimates of the error is getting smaller and smaller, 4.7-4.8 million tons of production range is also gradually recognized and used by the industry.

　　2, imports: 2017 cotton import quota also need not speculate, only 894,000 tons of 1% tariff within the quota, finishing trade and slip tariff quota increase is expected to have been broken, even with a large import volume to measure, 2016/17 total foreign cotton imports will not exceed 1.2 million tons (January-October 2016 China's cumulative imports of cotton 696,300 tons, of which October imports (41.3 thousand tons, therefore, the remaining 2016 quota as of the end of September about 300,000 tons).

　　3, reserve cotton rotation: according to the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance announcement shows that the new cotton listing this year (to the end of February next year) does not arrange for the reserve cotton rotation into, 2017 reserve cotton rotation sales will start from March 6, as of the time tentatively set at the end of August, the number of daily listed sales tentatively arranged according to 30,000 tons, taking into account the situation of the previous auction may occur, so if 20,000 tons per day deal extrapolated, the rotation deal Resources of about 2.5-2.6 million tons (estimated rate of abortive auction is less than 35%), then the total supply of 470 + 120 + 2.5 = 8.4 million tons.

　　2016/17 domestic cotton supply or greater than the demand for 500,000-600,000 tons (such as reserve cotton auction hot, the volume of transactions or up to 3 million tons, the supply is greater than the demand for nearly 1 million tons), but taking into account the quality of this year's real estate cotton, spinnability is low; Xinjiang southern border hand-picked cotton overall break than strength, length, horse value performance is poor and the quality of the rotation of reserve cotton has uncertainty, so the high grade high-quality Xinjiang cotton or in May after the opportunity to rebound.

　　Viscose line in the existing production conditions easy to rise and difficult to fall

　　Viscose staple fiber as cotton chemical fiber material, regenerated cellulose fiber, in recent years, the body price soared up. There was even a time when viscose short instead of cotton remarks. Industry insiders boldly predict: 2020-2021 period, China's viscose staple fiber production will exceed China's cotton! So, viscose staple fiber will replace cotton, how to interpret the market situation of viscose staple in 2017?

　　Shandong as China's spinning industry gathering place, but also cotton, cotton yarn trade lively area, the core lies in the fabric industry chain of semi-finished products finishing manufacturing, linking upstream and downstream, industrial progress is mature, local fiber enterprises produce conventional products mainly, black silk, fireproof and other products annual output in 1-2 million tons ranging from the level. Each of them said that the actual inventory is not large, the spot supply is relatively tight, at the end of the year downstream demand, funds, prices are relatively high and other factors appear under the stage of adjustment, but in the context of higher costs, demand growth, cotton is easy to rise and difficult to fall on the 2017 market situation is relatively bullish. The trajectory of history tells us that all progress must be a rule to find. Let's take a look at the trend of viscose staple fiber in the past four years, in fact, every October the price of viscose staple fiber has been in a not rising but falling trend, mainly because of the characteristics of this product of viscose staple fiber. As the viscose staple fiber woven into the fabric itself more on the cool side, such as rayon, bamboo fiber fabric, modal fabric, downstream procurement more for the production of spring and summer clothing. Therefore, when the market enters the thick fabric sales season, as a raw material, viscose staple fiber market demand is not as good as before, from a certain extent dragged down its price trend.

　　We care about the relationship between viscose and cotton, recall the past 10 years, 20 years, cotton and viscose price trend is particularly close, but cotton production capacity is no longer growing, if we need more comfortable fiber, and cotton performance close to the fiber, there is no doubt that viscose is a good choice. 2005 - 2010, the Viscose staple fiber prices have been higher than the price of cotton, but after the start of the national storage policy, see the price of viscose short all the way down, but the price of cotton has always remained at a very high position, nearly everyone began to pay attention to the futures of cotton, and previously paid particular attention to this aspect, many people expect the price of cotton futures will affect the viscose market, I think viscose will be based on the progress of the downstream market, product development, the Go out of their own market. Perhaps the next few years viscose prices will be higher than cotton, which is a normal phenomenon.

　　Overall, the current viscose industry is more profitable, may promote others to enter the industry to increase production capacity, supply increases, in the case of unchanged demand, prices will also continue to fall, but the next year and a half will not happen. So I estimate trust next year the average price of viscose will be higher than this year.